Progress in national climate policy efforts remains insufficient to achieve 2030 targets

A significant gap in policy ambition exists between globally agreed temperature goals and the emissions reductions of national climate targets, according to a new report on countries covered by the OECD’s International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC).

OECD (2024), The Climate Action Monitor 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/787786f6-en

According to the 4th edition of the Climate Action Monitor, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) currently commit to a collective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of only 14% by 2030, compared to 2022 levels, in countries covered by IPAC which produce over 80% of global GHG emissions. This is well short of the estimated 43% global emission reduction needed to limit global warming to 1.5° Paris Agreement goal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The report also points to the risk that net-zero targets may not be fulfilled, noting that most current commitments lack a legal basis on which to be enforced. As of August 2024, 110 countries have pledged a net-zero target for 2050 and beyond, covering about 88% of global GHG emissions. However, only 27 countries and the EU, representing 16% of global GHG emissions, have enshrined these targets into law.

“Our 2024 Climate Action Monitor underscores the growing impact of climate-related hazards and confirms that countries' emission reduction pledges are not consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Making real progress on the net-zero transition requires more ambitious mitigation targets and effective implementation”.

The report also highlights the recent slowdown in countries’ climate policy action across the countries that produce nearly two thirds of total greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF), which tracks both the number of adopted national climate policies and their stringency, national climate mitigation action only expanded by 1% and 2% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, compared to an average of 10% per year between 2010-21. This trend suggests that there could be a significant implementation gap where even the current modest GHG emissions reduction targets may not be achieved by 2030.

With 2024 on track to set new records for global warming, the detrimental effects of rising temperatures, changing rain patterns and other climate-related hazards are being seen on food systems, with croplands increasingly exposed to agricultural droughts. Many countries have observed a notable decline in soil moisture levels on croplands during 2019-23 when compared to the reference period of 1981-2010, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies to enhance resilience in farming practices. Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes have raged across the globe, destroying lives and livelihoods and the population exposed to extreme temperatures is growing rapidly. During the same period, the countries covered in the report experienced on average an additional 30 days of above-average temperatures compared to the baseline period.

Notes

The fourth edition of the Climate Action Monitor is a deliverable of the Net Zero+ International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC), which provides foundational data and metrics to assess country progress towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and the Paris Agreement goals. IPAC examines key trends and developments while assessing the progress of countries’ climate policies, complementing and supporting the monitoring frameworks of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.

IPAC data underpins numerous climate initiatives at the OECD, including the Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches. Making progress towards the net-zero challenge not only demands ambitious mitigation targets and effective implementation, but also dealing with the barriers and opportunities presented by the policy landscape and ensuring that the transition is resilient to changing circumstances.

IPAC covers the following countries: all OECD countries, OECD partner countries (Brazil, People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, South Africa), prospective members (Argentina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Peru, Romania), Saudi Arabia, Malta and the EU.

Countries that have enshrined net-zero targets in law: Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Maldives, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the EU.

The Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF) is a climate mitigation database developed by the OECD that measures governments’ climate policy action both in terms of policy adoption and stringency. It consistently tracks 56 key climate policies based on 130 policy variables from 1990 to 2023 for all OECD and OECD partners countries except the United States, which jointly account for nearly two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.

For further information on OECD climate change work, contact the OECD Media Office (+33 1 45 24 97 00).

Working with over 100 countries, the OECD is a global policy forum that promotes policies to preserve individual liberty and improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world.