OECD headline inflation declines slightly to 5.4% in November 2023

Temps de lecture: 3 min |17 janvier 2024 à 08:00

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased for the third consecutive month, from 5.6% in October to 5.4% in November 2023 (Figures 1 and 2). Declines in inflation between October and November 2023 were recorded in 28 OECD countries, the same number as between September and October. However, the fall in headline inflation was less pronounced than in the previous month. In the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium, headline inflation picked up again after a period of decline. Core inflation (inflation less food and energy) in the OECD continued to decline slightly, from 6.5% in October to 6.3% in November, its lowest level since April 2022.

Food inflation in the OECD continued to slow at a similar pace as in previous months but fell more rapidly than headline inflation. Food inflation reached 6.7% in November, down from 7.4% in October, with declines in 34 OECD countries. November marked the seventh consecutive month of negative energy inflation in the OECD. Significant differences were recorded across OECD countries: energy inflation exceeded 20% year-on-year in Czechia and Colombia while energy prices fell by more than 20% year-on-year in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Denmark.

In the G7, year-on-year inflation declined to 3.1% in November from 3.4% in October. Headline inflation was unchanged in Canada and broadly stable in the United States. It declined in every other G7 country, with the largest fall recorded in Italy. Non-food and non-energy items were the main contributors to headline inflation in most G7 countries in November (Figure 3). Food, energy and, to a lesser extent, core inflation continued to fall in the G7 as a whole.

In the euro area, year-on-year inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell further, reaching 2.4% in November following 2.9% in October, with relatively larger declines in food and core inflation and a less pronounced decline in energy inflation. In December, Eurostat’s flash estimate pointed to an increase in euro area inflation to 2.9%, with a slowing decline in energy prices, while core inflation is estimated to have continued to decrease. Inflation is estimated to have risen markedly in December in Germany, reflecting a base effect due to a one-off measure on gas and heating bills (known as "December immediate assistance") in December 2022.

In the G20, year-on-year inflation was broadly stable at 5.8% in November as compared with 5.7% in October. Inflation decreased in South Africa and in China, where it dived further into negative territory, but it increased in Argentina, India, and Indonesia. It was broadly stable in Brazil and Saudi Arabia.